Two significant forces appear to be heading toward each other.
One could create a wave of sellers. The other could put pressure on what some buyers are able to pay.
Neither one is a reason to panic. Together, they are a good reason to start preparing earlier than feels necessary.
Force one: a generation of owners getting ready to step back
In February 2026, the McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility estimated that about six million U.S. small and medium-size businesses (firms with fewer than 500 employees) will face ownership transitions by 2035 as baby boomer owners retire. (McKinsey)
That does not mean six million businesses will sell. The same research estimates that more than one million of those firms are viable candidates for a sale or employee ownership. Many of the rest may close, wind down or pass quietly to family.
For an owner, the takeaway is simple. If the estimate is close, more owners may be looking for buyers and partners over the next decade. A good business will still find interest. A business that is hard to understand, or that depends entirely on its owner, may have a harder time standing out.
Force two: a lot of debt coming due
Most of the money used to buy companies includes debt. When the cost or availability of that debt changes, what buyers can pay tends to change with it.
Here the picture is more complicated than a headline.
S&P Global Ratings has reported that, as of a year ago, more than $1 trillion of speculative-grade (below investment grade) nonfinancial corporate debt was scheduled to mature globally in 2028, and that companies refinanced enough over the following 12 months to cut that total by nearly 25%. (S&P Global Ratings) That is broad corporate debt, not only private credit, and much of it belongs to companies far larger than the ones we partner with.
Private credit, the loans made by non-bank lenders that fund many private equity deals, is part of that picture. S&P has also reported that private credit loans held by business development companies, one visible slice of the market, have maturities that peak in 2028. (S&P Global Ratings)
So the honest version is this: a large amount of corporate debt still has to be refinanced over the next few years, at rates that may be higher than when it was borrowed. Borrowers have been pushing some of it further out. How it plays out depends on rates, lender appetite and the economy, and nobody knows that for certain.
Why the two forces matter together
When more sellers come to market at the same time that financing gets tighter or more expensive for some buyers, the balance can shift. Buyers may get more selective. They may lean on structure, such as seller financing or earnouts, instead of cash at close. They may spend more time on diligence.
That is a possibility, not a forecast. Markets can surprise in both directions.
What seems more certain is that well-prepared businesses tend to have more options in any market. Clean numbers, a team that can run without the owner and a customer base that is not concentrated in one or two names are valuable whether money is cheap or expensive.
What to do now
The window to prepare is now. Not when you are ready to sell. Before that.
A few places to start:
Get two or three years of clean, consistent financial statements. It helps with every path, and it is hard to do in a hurry.
Reduce your dependence on yourself. Build a second layer of leadership and write down what only you know.
Look at your customer mix. If one customer could take a big piece of revenue out the door with one phone call, start working on that now.
Know your options before a buyer calls. Family, management, employees and outside partners each come with tradeoffs. We walk through them in Succession options for owner-operated businesses.
Find advisors early. A CPA, an attorney and a financial advisor who have done this before are worth more a few years out than a few weeks out.
For more on the practical side, see Preparing your business for its next chapter.
The long view
We have been partnering with owner-operated businesses since 2012. Markets move. Rates move. What does not change much is that buyers and partners pay for businesses they can understand and trust to keep running.
You cannot control the market. You can control how ready you are when the time comes.
If you want a candid conversation about where your business stands, reach out to us here.
Sources
McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, "The Great Ownership Transfer: A new era of business stewardship," February 2026. https://www.mckinsey.com/institute-for-economic-mobility/our-insights/the-great-ownership-transfer-a-new-era-of-business-stewardship
S&P Global Ratings, "Credit Trends: Global Refinancing: Speculative-Grade..." https://spcom-disclosure-next.use2.prod.ratings.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101682010
S&P Global Ratings, "BDCs Extend Private Credit Maturities As Financing Eases," August 15, 2024. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/240815-bdcs-extend-private-credit-maturities-as-financing-eases-13214054